Since Barack Obama’s victory last November, the Russian reaction to our new government has been getting more aggressive. Only when referring to the fact that Obama may back down from plans that Moscow dislikes do the Russians have any kind words for our president. Right after the election, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned the United States to not repeat past “mistakes” and to abandon plans to set up a missile defense shield in eastern Europe, that the US has insisted was to protect against missiles from rogue states particularly Iran. Medvedev believes that the missile shield is directed at Russia and threatened to set up a missile system in Kaliningrad, in Eastern Europe, neighboring Poland. Apparently, these threats have worked because the Obama administration has seemed to put the missile defense shield on the table in exchange for cooperation on Iran. The president has denied this through using ambiguous language, but many believe this to be the case. Since Iran already has thousands of centrifuges in operation and will within a couple of years or less have the capability to produce nuclear weapons and since the current administration is averse to the Bush policy of preemptive war, it may be too late to stop the Iranians. Furthermore, with spending going out of control due to the recession, Obama may not have the political backing nor the political will to push forward on the missile shield. The president has made clear that it would not be the top priority and that before deploying we would need to reassess the program’s cost effectiveness and feasibility; also, many believe that the president thinks that the missile shield is unnecessary. Given these realities, Russia has the ball in their court and they could cooperate on Iran if they wanted to or they can wait for Obama to back down on his own… remember, when the Soviet Union existed, they stared down the threat of nuclear war for decades without being phased, I don’t believe that a missile defense shield will be much of a bother.

With Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visiting officials in Russia, the Obama administration expressed its desire to “reset” our relationship. But instead of a reset, what we have experienced is a reassertion of Russian strength in the world. With each aggressive move, the US has not responded decisively and Russia has taken this as a sign of American weakness. With the myriad of problems plaguing the Bush administration, the perception of timidity was not one of them. The examples have been numerous and they started during the final months of the Bush administration with the invasion of Georgia (ironically, the only neighboring country of Russia that has the same name as one of our states). Not to get into too many details, here are some of the actions and reactions:

• In November, Russia indicated that it could supply Belarus short range missiles in response to the missile shield. US response: Suggest that the US could withdraw plans to move forward, apparently if Russia could help with Iranian issue.

• In January, without warning to Ukraine or the rest of Europe, Russia cuts off natural gas which is used by 20% of Europe during the winter. The European Union is forced to intervene in the contract dispute between Ukraine and Russia where the latter is demanding payment of $2 billion owed to Gazprom (Russia’s gas monopoly) and an increase in price of gas by nearly 40%, all during this recession and at a time when Ukraine is near bankruptcy. US response: none.

• Last month, Kyrgyzstan refused to keep hosting the US base (Manas airbase) after they accept a multi-billion dollar aid package from Russia. Kyrgyzstan’s ambassador admits that this decision was influenced by Russia even though the official story is that Russia had nothing to do with it. This complicates Obama’s plan to commit more troops to Afghanistan. US response: none.

• Last month, a day before the Obama visit to Canada, a Russian bomber was intercepted by the Canadian air force as it approached their airspace. Canadian air force was not violated. US response: none.

• Yesterday, Russian Air Force Chief speculated that they may station strategic longer-range bombers in Cuba or in Venezuela. Supposedly in response to the presence of US ships in the Black Sea, Russia insists that it was speaking of hypotheticals. US response: none.

• Russia trying to block the extradition of international arms dealer Viktor Bout, Russian businessman, from Thailand who has provided arms for America’s (and our allies’) enemies and was captured in a DEA sting operation. US response: Pressuring Thailand for extradition to the US.

All in all, the Russian strategy has been to expand its influence to pre-nineties levels using every weapon it has: economic, military, political, and diplomatic. It has opposed NATO expansion in the former Soviet republics and has supported their destabilization, from Georgia to Azerbaijan to Ukraine. Opponents of the Kremlin have been assassinated on foreign soil and the march towards the centralization of government power in the hands of only a few is continuing. More worrying is that US disregard for Latin America has left an opening for Russia that is being rapidly exploited. Russia now has strategic alliances with Venezuela and Cuba and is currently in the process of aligning itself with Bolivia (military deals and natural gas cooperation), Nicaragua (economic, diplomatic and military cooperation, possibly even building a Nicaraguan canal to rival the Panama Canal), and Ecuador (nuclear energy cooperation). Not to mention their alliances with Iran and Syria. In sum, they are allying themselves with every nation that is openly anti-American, especially in our own backyard.

We must not ignore the rise of Russia in our time. Increasingly, they seem to be using aggressive steps against the West in order to solidify their position as a newly resurgent superpower. The current administration should not continue the push-over diplomacy it has been demonstrating with respect to Russia. Our relationship with Russia should be based on mutual respect, not on threats. As Obama takes on the market he must also take on Russia: two bears that threaten America’s place in the world.

-AG