Yesterday, I focused on whether they had the will to win. Today’s escalation of attacks on the Taliban-controlled Swat Valley and the scrapping of the peace deal gives hope that Pakistan will finally get serious about fighting the terrorists instead of just talking to them. The truth is, though, that the stakes are high for Pakistan and its democratically elected government. The Taliban in Pakistan have several possible strategies that can tip the scales in their favor and the Pakistan intelligence services and armed forces need to guard against them.

So far it seems that in terms of conventional fighting, the Pakistani army is holding its own and beating the Taliban. What the Taliban must now resort to, if they cannot fight a conventional war, is to fight a guerrilla war and to use terrorism. A few suicide bombs in the middle of their metropolitan areas or their capital which is nearby will do much to shake up the Pakistani operation. Yesterday, Pakistani police arrested three would-be suicide bombers in Lahore, so we can expect that there are more of them scattered throughout the country. A second possible strategy that might change the game is a terrorist attack on India. The last thing that Pakistan needs right now is for India to somehow become involved in this fight or to threaten Pakistan. This may end up backfiring if the Indians actually help the Pakistanis against the Taliban, but it would be a wild card.

At the end though, Pakistan is dealing with a very resilient enemy that has a base in Afghanistan and in difficult terrain. The Taliban claim to control 90% of the Swat Valley region and there are fears that they might target high profile officials. For thousands of years these people have inhabited this regions and have never been easy to govern. This disturbing video shows just what type of enemy that Pakistan is dealing with:

Pakistan should try its hardest to limit collateral damage and civilian deaths before public sentiment turns against the war. They should also try to wrap this up as soon as possible. America knows all too well how a democracy dislikes war. If Pakistan does in fact win, then the civilized world would have won a major victory against terrorism.