Three weeks ago I predicted that the Taliban would start setting off bombs in the middle of Pakistan’s major cities and last Thursday, that is exactly what took place. The Taliban carried out a terrorist attack in Lahore killing 27 and wounding 250. In Peshawar, they set off a series of bombs hat killed 8 people. Of course, to be fair, I predicted that a terrorist organization would engage in terrorism… pretty much a no-brainer. Regardless of that, it is important to understand that the enemy that Pakistan is currently trying to defeat is not one that can be defeated using conventional strategies and conventional armed forces. The problem with these organizations is that they do not have standing armies, they do not wear distinct uniforms, and they do not always congregate in one area. They look like civilians, act like civilians, and smell like civilians… and if Pakistan stations its entire army in that region, then the Taliban will simply take off their ski masks and melt away into the civilian population.

What this means is that even if Pakistan gains control of a city or region, like they recently did, it does not mean that the organization is significantly closer to being defeated. Right now, we can expect that Taliban elements have dispersed throughout the country and are planning to carry out further bombings… so while the conventional battle may have been won by Pakistan, the unconventional war may rage on. The terrorists have several advantages: a clear set of demands ("Sharia Law"), support from the local population that fears creeping westernization, and years of preparation. If they can convincingly express that they will cease their attacks in exchange for the right to live by Islamic Law and convincingly portray Pakistan’s government as being Washington’s lapdog, then they can win the psychological war. Pakistan must preempt this strategy by launching and sustaining their own PR campaign (psy-ops) and by stepping up their counter-terrorist efforts in order to smoke out the terror cells set up around the country. They must also make sure that the internally displaced population is properly taken care of, otherwise these people will blame the Pakistani government for their woes and become ripe pickings for terrorist recruiters. The internal refugee population will become a ticking time bomb if not taken care of.

So far, Pakistan has been pursuing a policy more in line with logic than their previous policy of appeasement… it seems that the Obama administration is partially responsible for pushing them to crack down on the terrorists. In spite of that, I fear that the Pakistani government will not have the will to fight a prolonged guerrilla war in Swat Valley and a prolonged terrorist threat throughout the country… they have shown time and time again that they are more willing to negotiate with the terrorists so that they can “control” them rather than fight them. Let’s hope that the Pakistani government does not surrender and let’s pray that the Pakistani people do not suffer at the hands of terrorism.

-AG