When the United States pounded Al Qaeda after 911, the terrorist organization was essentially neutralized, forced to issue only a few statements from their mountain hideouts, forced to serve as simply the “inspirational” focus of would-be terrorists instead of actively supporting them, and forced to keep their organization small in order to prevent infiltration. They were fighting a relentless US-led campaign to wipe them out of existence for their crimes against thousands of innocent civilians and finally caught a break when Pakistan started negotiating with the Taliban and granting them quasi-autonomy in certain regions. It was in Pakistan’s ungovernable mountainous regions that Al Qaeda could exist with some form of security since the United States would not violate Pakistani sovereignty by invading or attacking the area. The recent Pakistani crackdown on the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the terrorist-controlled region has been the most serious effort against the terror group in years, killing hundreds of militants and targeting terrorist hideouts. Despite the Pakistani government’s offensive operation against the Taliban and Al Qaeda, the terrorists have not been defeated but instead have launched multiple terrorist strikes in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Al Qaeda has also strengthened its presence in Algeria where it has carried out 10 attacks in the last month or so, Yemen where they are suspected of establishing a new base, Somalia where the government says that Al Qaeda-linked groups are too much for the government to handle, Iraq where terror attacks have increased substantially this year, and other countries. What is most troubling is that the mainstream media has not been devoting enough time to this troubling global trend.

In Africa, Al Qaeda claimed responsibility for the death of an American aid worker in Mauritania, 39-year-old Christopher Ervin Leggett.

Christopher Ervin Leggett

Algeria is willing to offer amnesty to Al Qaeda terrorists, who recently killed a British hostage and launched attacks against Algerian soldiers, in an effort to reduce attacks in that country, a move that will only benefit Al Qaeda by making Algeria into a safe haven and a base from which terrorists can threaten Europe. In Mali, armed forces took over an Al Qaeda base near the Algerian border killing twelve militants, indicating that the terror group’s infrastructure in the region is pretty far advanced. Furthermore, as the pressure mounts on the Afghan-Pakistani border regions, Al Qaeda is now relocating to the Horn of Africa and setting up terrorist training camps. For example in Somalia, Al Qaeda is threatening to take over Mogadishu, engaging in a series of clashes with government forces recently.

Mustafa Abu Al-Yazid, Al Qaeda commander of operations in Afghanistan

Unfortunately, this does not mean that Al Qaeda is giving up in Pakistan or Afghanistan, in fact there are signs that they and their Taliban-allies are getting stronger. First is the fact that they have launched several terror attacks across Pakistan since the offensive began. Second, in a recent interview with Al Jazeera, Al Qaeda spokesman said that they would soon win the battle in Pakistan and that they would use Pakistan’s nuclear weapons against the United States. The Pakistani forces have reportedly made significant gains against the Taliban, but the group seems to continue resisting and carrying out attacks around the country. In a sign that the Taliban is reasserting itself decisively in Afghanistan, Taliban supreme leader Mullah Omar has reestablished direct control of the Taliban resistance. Previously, the Taliban were a decentralized resistance group that carried out attacks according to the decisions of individual commanders. The Taliban recently launched a rocket attack on the US Bagram Air Base killing two soldiers and injuring six Americans, showing their resolve to continue fighting despite the upcoming increase in US troops in the region.

Baitullah Mehsud, Leader of Pakistani Taliban

Which brings us to Iraq, where recent bombings and terror attacks have increased as US forces have pulled out of Iraqi cities and back to US bases. In that same interviewed with Al Jazeera, the spokesman pointed to the US withdrawal as Al Qaeda’s victory in Iraq and that they have not launched major attacks on the US because they have been too busy fighting in the Middle East and Central Asia. Interestingly enough, this last point was the previous administration’s rationale for going to war, i.e. to bring the fight to the enemy so they do not attack us here.

Possible Aftermath of US Withdrawal

Of course, with a resurgent Al Qaeda that is able to project its power around the world and engage in terror in both Iraq and Afghanistan, countries where Al Qaeda was previously on the run, they will resume their plans to attack the United States mainland. An terrifying example is a recent video released by Al Qaeda that explains how they plan to exploit the security weaknesses of the US-Mexico border and sneak in a biological weapon. For those unconvinced of Al Qaeda’s sophistication in the development of biological weapons, early this year an Al Qaeda cell died of “the plague” at an Algerian terror base reportedly from their attempts to weaponize the disease. The threat from Al Qaeda is now more real than any time since 911.

With the current US strategy of withdrawing from Iraq, Al Qaeda will be able to fully challenge the Iraqi government by fomenting sectarian conflict and try to establish a base there, not to mention the propaganda value of having the US withdraw from Iraq in the midst of heightened terrorism. With the current behind-the-scenes talks with the Taliban, any sort of deal drawn up between the US-led coalition forces and the Taliban will result in the strengthening of the Taliban and subsequently the strengthening of their guests: Al Qaeda. With the current trend of politicization of terrorist groups occurring throughout the region and the US aversion to the deployment of troops anywhere else in the world, the possibility of the rise of an Islamic state-within-a-state with ties to Al Qaeda seems pretty inevitable. Only a sustained offensive policy towards Al Qaeda can stop them from gaining the capability to strike at the United States again. Our failure to address the growing Al Qaeda threat in Africa, inability to motivate Pakistan to crack down on terror, and the unraveling of last year’s security gains in Iraq have contributed to the resurgence of this threat. When one also considers that the eventual release of hundreds of Guantanamo Bay detainees, Iraqi detainees, and Afghan detainees will only swells Al Qaeda’s ranks with newly radicalized or re-radicalized recruits, it becomes apparent that the United States needs to adopt a better strategy in dealing with the terror group.

A world united against terror would certainly help

Hopefully, the cooperation we have been receiving from other nations and the operations in Pakistan and Afghanistan will be able to keep Al Qaeda from returning… but as of now, our “Overseas Contingency Operations” do not seem to be reducing Al Qaeda’s power. Let’s hope this changes.

-AG