07/27/09

Will Chavez Assassinate Zelaya?

Filed under: International — @ 12:12:50 pm

Ernesto ‘Che’ Guevara’s Capture

I wrote before that many speculate that the death of Ernesto ‘Che’ Guevara was caused directly or indirectly by Fidel Castro. The logic is simple: a martyr is better than a living political ally because the martyr cannot challenge your power. This is not an isolated event, communists have a history of using the deaths of other communists as propaganda campaigns. With that in mind, I was wondering if maybe it would occur to Hugo Chavez that the death of Jose Manuel Zelaya, deposed socialist ex-president of Honduras, would actually be more beneficial to the whole “Socialism in the 21st Century” campaign (this is Chavez’s international socialist ‘movement’). Currently, Zelaya is just playing tag on the border with Honduras and Nicaragua, essentially at a stalemate.

Technically, claims of assassination attempts and coup attempts orchestrated in Washington are the most common unfounded claims that these socialists make. Of course, I do not generally believe these conspiracy theories for a simple reason, if the United States or the Central Intelligence Agency wanted to kill a public figure, they would do it pretty efficiently, particularly because it is US policy not to engage in political assassinations but I digress. Chavez has been crying for years that the US wants to kill him, depose him, etc. but the whole “I am a victim, wah wah wah!” routine has gotten kind of old. Chavez’s best propaganda and political tool is to do what Castro has done, take the nation’s national hero and incorporate him somehow in their ideology. The truth is that the best socialist movements need a martyr. In Nicaragua, the socialists are called Sandinistas, named after a peasant rebel called Augusto Sandino who was assassinated by a right-wing dictator, and now the have power in that country. We all know that the Che Guevara image is used on everything from T-shirts to coasters, so much for the whole anti-capitalist thing. Imagine the effect that the death of Mel Zelaya would have on socialism in Latin America… it would breathe life into a movement that may be growing stale. Furthermore, it would create a figure for the socialist movement in Honduras to promote. For Chavez, the assassination of Zelaya would give him the chance to blame the United States for even more reprehensible ‘interventionism’ and again appear like the victim in the international arena.

Honestly, even if Mel Zelaya would return to power, he would probably not have the political capital to impose any sort of socialist program. He can’t use the army either, since the military opposes Zelaya. In a sense, Zelaya would be a lame-duck and he would never be able to run for president again. If he returns and they put him on trial, his credibility and his allies’ credibility will be harmed. All in all, Chavez does not benefit from any of the moves he has in front of him, except assassination. I will not bet that Chavez will do this, but in case it does happen, the fact is that Zelaya’s political opponents will be severely hurt and the socialists will be helped. It happened with Che and his communist sponsor, it can happen again with Mel and his socialist sponsor. He should watch his back.

-AG

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